Speedy fixed 5G services are sizing up to be bullies that will steal some of cable broadband's lunch money, according to Cowen Inc.'s recent analysis of the emerging technology.

With cable operators largely viewed as home connectivity companies, "we see 5G fixed wireless broadband as the largest existential threat to broadband providers, by far," Cowen's analysts concluded in an industry update report issued earlier this month.

Though AT&T Inc. will factor into that mix, Cowen views Verizon Communications Inc.  and T-Mobile US Inc. as the largest threats to cable's lucrative and high-margin broadband business. For its part, Verizon has identified four markets for its 2018 5G fixed wireless launch (Houston, Indianapolis, Sacramento, and Los Angeles). 

T-Mobile, meanwhile, has talked about ambitious plans to capture 10 million broadband subs by 2024, largely targeting cable's footprint, Cowan noted. The firm is also somewhat skeptical of those claims, particularly with respect to 5G network capacity in non-rural areas, given the political posturing around these comments as T-Mobile and Sprint Corp.  attempt to merge. 

Still, T-Mobile's stated plan with 5G broadband is to provide speeds in excess of 100 Mbit/s to two-thirds of the US population by 2021, and to 90% of the US population by 2024, Cowen points out.

Cowen notes that Verizon will focus its efforts in top markets where it has deep fiber networks, augmented by its acquisition of XO Communications, and where it is not the incumbent (the firm says Verizon is a top five fiber provider in 16 of the top 30 US cities where it's not the incumbent LEC), indicating that Verizon's bent on being a disruptive force. 

In terms of the sheer number of homes under threat, Comcast Corp.  and AT&T are the most exposed to Verizon's 5G fixed wireless threat, according to Cowen's analysis.