Mobile Merger Changes Cable Calculus

May 7, 2018

The prospect of a Sprint/T-Mobile merger is already causing waves throughout the wireless industry. And that includes not just the traditional carriers, but the cable providers entering the mobile market as well. Sprint has regularly wooed and been wooed by US cable operators. A failed MVNO attempt ten years ago partnering Sprint with Comcast, Cox, Time Warner Cable and Bright House Networks may have made the MSOs wary, but it hasn't stopped discussions about how they might work together again.  

Now that Sprint Corp. (NYSE: S) is officially tying the knot with T-Mobile US Inc., however, the situation is altogether different. (See T-Mobile to Buy Sprint for $26.5B to Create US 5G Powerhouse.)  

First, it was only ten months ago that rumors were still being floated about Sprint possibly merging with one of the cablecos. Charter Communications Inc.seemed the most likely candidate, having both the ambition to master wireless, and a greater need for a partner than Comcast Corp. (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK) to turn that ambition into reality. (See Sprint Proposes Merger With Charter – Report.)  

There was also a pleasing logic to the notion that, with cable companies entering the wireless sector and carriers seeking their fortunes in video, a cable operator and a mobile company could complement each other nicely. Whether the financials made sense was a different matter, but the narrative was compelling.

It isn't anymore.  

A combined Sprint and T-Mobile becomes a much larger whale to swallow. Plus, T-Mobile has already acquired Layer3 TV, which, at least theoretically, should fulfill its video needs. Merging a new and bigger carrier with one of the cable giants would be a major headache without the same potential for reward.

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