T-Mobile: If the Sprint Deal Flops, Is There a Downside?

May 3, 2018

T-Mobile US reported stronger-than-expected revenue and profit numbers yesterday, boosting its outlook for new subscribers. That has some observers thinking ahead to what happens if the company’s proposed deal with Sprint doesn’t come off. The upshot, according to a Tuesday note from MoffettNathanson: It would be much worse for Sprint (S). “T-Mobile’s (TMUS) Q1 results certainly bolster the ‘we’ll be fine either way’ case,” they wrote.” NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP • Their argument: If the deal is blocked, Sprint would once again face questions about solvency. They have failed to generate free cash flow for years, and, in the absence of a deal, would have to dramatically ramp capital spending even as (real) Ebitda continues to trend lower. By contrast, T-Mobile would likely be fine. Yes, there are plenty of investments that might need to be made, and, yes, they would dearly love to get their hands on those $43B of synergies. But the company doesn’t face anything like the same existential threat as Sprint. And if Sprint were to slide toward insolvency after a deal were blocked, T-Mobile would likely be the main beneficiary. They result would likely be reinvigorated subscriber growth. at Sprint’s expense.

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